Feb 6th 2019, $NWBO, $0.24, $128M market capitalization
Carlo Rago, PhD
The well-attended Annual Shareholder Meeting (ASM) on Feb 2nd 2019 strengthened my conviction for NWBO. All of the board’s recommendations were approved and there was a sizable turn-out in person or proxy. While I believe that the initiation of analyst coverage could immediately help NWBO realize a more appropriate value as a Phase III clinical asset in the hot immuno-oncology space, the key takeaways from the ASM are focused on fundamental value:
- The company is laser-focused on the series of steps that they identified to get to top-line data, which will be the major value-inflection point.
- I have extreme confidence in their ability to execute the steps
- I get the sense that they have enough capital to execute the steps, particularly with the remaining 17 acres in the UK that can be monetized, if needed.
- The steps are each multi-month processes and there is some overlap where there can be parallel processing. I'm guessing this means 6 months of work, but we are 2-3 months into the work, so I'm guessing top-line data could be available at the end of May. Notably, ASCO is May 31st - June 4th - The company is compelled to unveil at ASCO because it is the main event for revealing clinical oncology advances. On the other hand, some have guessed top-line data will be available at the end of the year. February 12th is the deadline to retain the opportunity to submit an abstract to ASCO 2019.
- They have stated that they are submitting the Statistical Analysis Plan to four distinct geographical/market regions - This gives them four independent chances at regulatory success and four chances at commercialization/revenue. i.e. the probability of regulatory success in at least one of the four markets is better than the probability of regulatory success if they were to submit to only one market.
- If top-line data is compelling, then the valuation could reach $10-20B based on the CAR-T valuations and with the understanding that DCVax represents a platform that can be applied more readily to a larger set of indications (i.e. each CAR-T drug that addresses a new target must go through the drug development process and each first-generation CAR-T prep for each patient requires a genetic engineering step, which is not required for DCVax). To be clear, DCVax is easier to produce than first-generation CAR-Ts.
- I was reminded that their facility has the capacity for 10,000 patients per year, which is large enough to drive it to the valuations cited above.
- The general feel was that the board has greater confidence, optimism, and unity than ever before.
Along with the key takeaways above, I have a growing sense that the company intends to inflict maximum value at the most advantageous moment for shareholders. A crescendo, with a vengeance.
Disclosures
Carlo Rago, PhD owns Northwest Biotherapeutics (NWBO) Common Stock. In addition, Dr. Rago serves
as a Consultant to District 2 Capital and Bigger Capital. Dr. Rago’s compensation at District 2 Capital
and Bigger Capital depends on the performance of the securities in their portfolios. District 2 Capital and
Bigger Capital own both Common Stock and Warrants of NWBO. This review is based solely on publicly
available information and does not represent medical or investment advice in any way.
This blog post may contain forward-looking statements, including statements as to anticipated or
expected results, beliefs, opinions, and future financial performance. The forward-looking statements are
based on current expectations and assumptions and involve risks and uncertainties that may cause the
Company's actual experience to differ materially from that anticipated.
The views contained in this blog post represent the opinions of Dr. Rago as of the date hereof. In
addition, the efficacy and safety of DCVax-L is only one element in valuing the securities of the
Company. Investors and other interested parties of the Company are encouraged to do their own analysis
of DCVax-L and the Company. Dr. Rago reserves the right to change any of his opinions expressed
herein at any time and for any reason and expressly disclaims any obligation to correct, update or revise
the information contained herein. The information contained in the blog post may not contain all of the
information required in order to evaluate the value of the Company or its securities. Investors should seek
independent scientific or financial advice regarding the efficacy and safety of DCVax-L, the suitability of
investing in any securities or of following any investment strategies; Dr. Rago is not offering or providing
such services in connection with this blog post or otherwise making a recommendation to buy or sell
any of the Company’s securities.
Bigger Capital Fund, LP, District 2 Capital Fund LP and related entities are long 15 million Northwest
Biotherapeutics, Inc. securities (stock and derivatives) and are actively trading in its securities. NWBO is a
microcap company and it is not suitable for the majority of investors. The likely outcome of an investment is
a loss of principal. Take our opinions with a grain of salt. If you find yourself relying on our views to make
an investment decision it means you definitely did not do your homework about this situation. Please do
not rely on our views, instead use the information as a jumping off point to begin your own independent due
diligence.