Note to Self: The Importance of not Giving a Shit about Conventional Wisdoms

The next day, after my credential had expired and I’d headed back to New York, I sent my friend David Laurila, a former colleague of mine at Baseball Prospectus and a veteran interviewer, on a reconnaissance mission to see if he could get something more useful out of Pedroia. But Pedroia wasn’t much more talkative, giving Laurila about the blandest quote imaginable. “You know what? I’m a guy who doesn’t care about numbers and stats,” he told Laurila. “All I care about is W’s and L’s. I care about wins and losses. Nothing else matters to me.”

Pedroia had learned to speak in this kind of cliché after getting himself into all kinds of trouble when straying from the party line. Like the time he called his hometown of Woodland, California , a “dump.” 7 “You can quote me on that,” Pedroia told Boston magazine, “I don’t give a shit.” He doesn’t give a shit. I would come to realize that without that attitude, Pedroia might have let the scouting reports go to his head and never have made the big leagues.

Source

Silver, Nate (2012-09-27). The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't (pp. 76-77). Penguin Group US. Kindle Edition. 

Silver, Nate (2012-09-27). The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't (p. 77). Penguin Group US. Kindle Edition. 

Congratulations @capitalismworld for Winning your TakeThisBet!

On December 30, 2013, we announced our first multi-player TakeThisBet! game with a cash prize of $500.  The game began on the close of trading on January 6, and ended on April 8.  The game was pretty successful, with over 80 players competing.  The race to the finish was quite competitive, we had almost 10% of our participants achieve 50% growth or better over a 3 month period.  Our grand prize winner, @CapitalismWorld, more than tripled the value of his $100 hypothetical investment over the short 3 month game term! 

Let's take a closer look at how he did it.  @CapitalismWorld joined the game with a pick of $TGCDF, Teranga Gold.  He had this to say about the choice:

"$TGCDF Teranga Gold:   $300M mkt cap gold producer in Senegal. 250,000 oz/yr production lowest quartile  cost .  New financing (streaming deal) by Franco Nevada in late 2013. Expanding the mine footprint."

$TGCDF was a great choice, and in less than a month, his hypothetical $100 investment had gone up 60%, to $160.  On February 1, he swapped this position for $SYCRF.  In his words, he liked $SYCRF because:

"Syncora mortgage insurer suing for R&W against several banks.  $125M mkt cap almost went BK against sub prime mortgage claims and is now settling, Recently settled with JPM  for $400 million ($7/share) to settle lawsuits brought by bond insurer Syncora Guarantee Inc over toxic mortgage-backed securities, according to the insurer.  Statements had “going concern” warning which is now removed…more settlements coming likely. Complicated share structure typical of insurers.  Similar story to $MBI and $AGO."

He was clearly right on $SYCRF as well because in just a little more than 2 months, this position doubled from a value of $160 to $320.

We have created a new competition with $4000 in total prizes, for which you have until May 28 to sign-up. Sign-up now! @capitalismworld has already chosen $NOA to start the game. You might want to check it out. He said this about $NOA:

NORTH AMERICAN ENERGY PARTNERS INC. is one of the largest providers of heavy construction, mining, and piling services in Western Canada  initiating first dividend and redeeming preferred so cash flow is ramping up.

Congratulations to @CapitalismWorld for a well-deserved win and some great short-term investing opportunities.  Congratulations also to all the other participants.

Written by Jennifer Galperin.  Follow me on Twitter and StockTwits. 

Bigger Capital Small and Micro Caps Competition - Total Prizes $4000

http://goo.gl/UeWLjO

1. This is a beta test and it is possible that the game malfunctions.  Therefore we have the right to cancel, postpone, or modify the game and its rules at any time.
2. Grand Prize of $2500 to the winner of the competition and 3 bonus prizes of $500 for the 3 best catalysts (In our opinion). 
3. This is a small and micro caps competition. The stocks you choose to input must have a market capitalization of less than $500 million at the time of entry for you to be eligible to win.
4. In addition, in order to be eligible to win, you must input a catalyst for the stocks you trade in this competition at the time you enter your initial ticker or at any time you change your ticker for a new one. The text input of the catalyst must contain at least a 50 words description. You must have a catalyst for each stock. Here is an example of my very lengthy APP catalyst. Of course it does not need to be that long. You can link the catalyst feature to a blog post you have written already for your convenience.
5. We intend to award the prize to the player who scores the highest on his stock P&L. If more than one player score the same result, we will pick a winner by drawing the names of the players who tied from a hat to determine the ultimate winner of the game.
6. Under no circumstance can we have more than 1 winner.
7. Only the players on the Leader Board List will be eligble to win.
8. The maximum number of players is set at 1000.
9. The minimum number of players is set at 500. If the minimum is not reached the game will be cancelled.
10. Each player can play only one spot in this game. They can't come under different twitter handles.
11. On day one you can pick only 1 stock. If a player picks 2 stocks, the latest pick will be the one we will be using for this participant's score. You can change your ticker as many times as you want during the game using the "Change my Ticker" button.
12. Anyone working for Bigger Capital or associated to it in any commercial way will not be eligible to win although they can play the game.
13. Only stocks traded in the United States and for which we have proper quotations can be enter. This includes only Nasdaq, NYSE and Amex stocks. Pink sheet and OTCBB stocks are not eligible.
14. No restriction on industry and sector.
15. We will use PayPal to send the payment. We will need the information required by tax authority to send the proper 1099-Misc before sending payment.
16. If the winner is under the age of 18, the parent or guardian must sign a release authorizing the minor to receive the prize.
17. If the prize is not claimed 20 days after the game has expired, the prize will go the the player who finishes in second place.
18. Void where prohibited, regulated or restricted by law in a manner inconsistent with the purposes and rules hereof.  Odds of winning depend upon the number of participants. 
19. All federal, state and local taxes, and any other taxes, fees and surcharges will be the sole responsibility of the prizewinner. 
20. The content on Takethisbet.com belongs in its entirety to Bigger Capital, LLC.

Why play the game?

• Compete
• Have fun
• Win prizes by joining promoted multiplayer games
• Trade discovery
• Catalyst discovery
• Increase your social capital
• Make new trading friends
• Experiment with trades
• Teach your kids about the stock market

Why promote a multiplayer game?

• Easy to set up and play
• Reach a target audience of serious traders
• Increased your brand visibility
• Multiple touch points with prospective customers during the duration of the game
• Broadens your social media reach through periodic tweets to players
• Compliments your existing online marketing strategy
• Interested in promoting a game? Contact us

Interested in accessing TakeThisBet data? 

• Just go to takethisbet.com and lookup your tickers to access catalysts data.
• If you are a financial institution interested in our API please Contact us.

Regards,

Written by Michael Bigger. Follow me on Twitter and StockTwits.      

New TakeThisBet Game - Cash Prize $500

http://goo.gl/9Z37jg

*** Bonus Prize for entering the contest: We will raffle one Samsung Galaxy Tab-2 7 inches 8Gb among the people who enter the contest.

1. This is a beta test and it is possible that the game malfunctions.  Therefore we have the right to cancel, postpone, or modify the game and its rules at any time.
2. We intend to award the prize to the player who scores the highest on his stock P&L. If more than one player score the same result, we will pick a winner by drawing the names of the players who tied from a hat to determine the ultimate winner of the game.
3. Under no circumstance can we have more than 1 winner.
4. Only the players on the Leader Board List will be eligble to win.
5. The maximum number of players is set at 1000.
6. Each player can play only one spot in this game. They can't come under different twitter handles.
7. On day one you can pick only 1 stock. If a player picks 2 stocks, the latest pick will be the one we will be using for this participant's score.
8. We are working on technology to allow to sell a stock on the close and reinvest the proceed in another one at the same time. We expect this technology to be in place before the start of this game.
9. Anyone working for Bigger Capital or associated to it in any commercial way will not be eligible to win although they can play the game.
10. Only stocks traded in the United States and for which we have proper quotations can be enter.
11. No restriction on industry, sector, or market capitalization.
12. We will use PayPal to send the payment.
13. If the winner is under the age of 18, the parent or guardian must sign a release authorizing the minor to receive the prize.
14. If the prize is not claimed 20 days after the game has expired, the prize will go the the player who finishes in second place.
15. Void where prohibited, regulated or restricted by law in a manner inconsistent with the purposes and rules hereof.  Odds of winning depend upon the number of participants. 
16. All federal, state and local taxes, and any other taxes, fees and surcharges will be the sole responsibility of the prizewinner. 

Why play the game?

• Compete
• Have fun
• Win prizes by joining promoted multiplayer games
• Trade discovery
• Increase your social capital
• Make new trading friends
• Experiment with trades
• Teach your kids about the stock market

Why promote a multiplayer game?

• Easy to set up and play
• Reach a target audience of serious traders
• Increased your brand visibility
• Multiple touch points with prospective customers during the duration of the game
• Broadens your social media reach through periodic tweets to players
• Compliments your existing online marketing strategy
• Interested in promoting a game? Contact us 

Regards,

Written by Michael Bigger. Follow me on Twitter and StockTwits.      

Beta Testing Multi-Player Game

We need some players to beta test our stock market game which can be found right here:

http://goo.gl/STW0k7

For your effort we will award 1  brand new Xbox One Console under the following conditions:

1. This is a beta test and it is possible that the game malfunctions.  Therefore we have the right to cancel, postpone, or modify the game at any time.
2. We intend to award the prize to the player who scores the highest on his stock P&L. If more than one player score the same result, we will pick a winner by drawing the names of the players who tied from a hat to determine the ultimate winner of the game.
3. Under no circumstance can we have more than 1 winner.
4. Only the players on the Leader Board List will be eligble to win.
5. The maximum number of players is set at 1000.
6. Each player can pick only 1 stock. If a player picks 2 stocks, the latest pick will be the one we will be using for this participant's score.
7. Anyone working for Bigger Capital or associated to it in any commercial way will not be eligible to win although they can play the game.
8. Only stocks traded in the United States and for which we have proper quotations can be enter.
9. If we have to ship outside of the USA the recipient will pay for shipping.
10. If the winner is under the age of 18, the parent or guardian must sign a release authorizing the minor to receive the prize.
11. If the prize is not claimed 20 days after the game has expired, the prize will go the the player who finishes in second place.
12. Void where prohibited, regulated or restricted by law in a manner inconsistent with the purposes and rules hereof.  Odds of winning depend upon the number of participants. 
13. All federal, state and local taxes, and any other taxes, fees and surcharges will be the sole responsibility of the prizewinner. 

Thank you for your help.

Regards,

Written by Michael Bigger. Follow me on Twitter and StockTwits.     

$TIF, $GGAL, $HRL

Stocks on watchlist - Aris

$RLD

RLD looks decent here on the breakout above 9.00 - Aris

Michael just added to this spread:

$RUTH

I like break out stocks supported by strong volume. -Aris

Note to Self: Why I Will Experiment Until I Die

In the book Something Incredibly Wonderful Happens, Frank Oppenheimer and the World He  Made Up, Frank Oppenheimer discusses the importance of play:

So much time is spent just playing around with no particular end in mind," he wrote: "One sort of mindlessly observes how something works or doesn't work or what its features are, much as I did when, as a child, I used to go around the house with an empty milk bottle pouring a little bit of every chemical, every drug, every spice into the bottle to see what would happen. Of course, nothing happened. I ended up with a sticky grey-brown mess, which I threw out in disgust. Much research ends up with the same amorphous mess and is or should be thrown out only to then start playing around in some other way. But a research physicist gets paid for this 'waste of time' and so do the people who develops exhibits in the Exploratorium. Occasionally though, something incredibly wonderful happens."

 "He asked his friend Bob Karpus, a physicist at the University of California at Berkeley, if he thought there was anything a young person must learn before it is too late, and Karpus's answer was: "play."

This is the reason why I experiment and will experiment until I die.

Written by Michael Bigger. Follow me on Twitter and StockTwits.   

Introducing Take This Bet!

Play Take This Bet! Right Now

How do I play?

Take This Bet is a fun and easy stock picking game that you play with your friends on twitter.  

When you start a game, the game will track the performance of $100 invested in your stock and $100 shorted in your opponent stock. Your opponent will be invited to take the opposite of this bet via twitter. Win bragging rights and may the best trader win. No money is at stake. Here is a video that shows you how to play: